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Poker And BluffingThu 29 June 2017
There's a little bit more math to bluffing that you need to understand. It has to do with how many potential callers you have when you attempt to bluff. To see this point, assume that it's equally likely (50-50) that each player will call when you attempt to bluff on the end. If you're first and there's just one other player, the odds that you'll be successful are 50-50 (1/2), or 1:1. If there are two other players, you have odds of 1 out of 4 (1/2 x 1/2), or 3:1. Three players (1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2) makes odds of one out of eight, or 7:1. Four players is 15:1 against. Five players is 31:1 against. You can see how these odds against you increase exponentially. They get out of hand pretty quickly, which is exactly why bluffing works best against only a few players.
There's another factor that works against you when you're trying to bluff, especially when you're bluffing into more than two players. Beginning and low limit players sometimes feel that they're honor bound to call you with anything, especially as the last player in the hand who could keep you from winning the pot. The last player will often call your attempted bluff just because he's the last player, and not because he's considering pot odds or his poker hand.
Besides your opponents profiles, what else should you consider when deciding whether to bluff? Pot-size is an important factor in your analysis. Medium-sized pots are the most difficult to steal. Why? Well, there's a reason they got to be medium-sized. It's usually because an average number of players got average cards, made average-strength poker hands, and created an average-sized pot. If you try to bluff into one of these pots, you'll get called by an average hand.
Very small pots are the easiest to steal, because there's usually a very small number of players in those hands, most of whom will fold slightly better than average hands when you bluff, because they often correctly realize that they're not getting the right pot odds to call you.
Often, these players will have only one small bet invested in the pot. They don't want to call a big bet on the river, because there's little to win by risking so much. If you're interested in bluffing for a small pot, it helps if you keep the pot small by not betting on the flop, as long as you think it's safe to do so. You generally don't want to give free cards but, in those instances when it's correct to do so, one of the benefits is that it may help you successfully bluff on the river.
Very large pots can be very profitable to bluff for. The difference is that you may go a long time between winning these bluffs. When you do win one, though, the pot odds will more than compensate you for the times you lost. In summary, unless you have very good, specific reasons for bluffing at medium-sized pots, you should try to make most of your bluffing attempts at very small or very large pots.
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